Hazardous weather conditions are anticipated across South Arkansas on Wednesday and Thursday, according to the National Weather Service.
A lake wind advisory is already in effect through midnight Tuesday, and anticipated rainfall levels are expected to create near flood conditions on the Ouachita River in South Arkansas.
The wind advisory is the result of a tight pressure gradient ahead of a strong surface low pressure system over West Texas. This will result in southerly winds of 15 to 20 mph, with gusts in excess of 30 mph Tuesday and Tuesday evening.
Strong and gusty winds will produce a rough chop and potentially hazardous boating conditions on area lakes.
A strong cold front will slowly push east across the Four State region on Thursday, ahead of the parent upper level storm system that will emerge out into the Plains. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of the front by mid to late morning across East Texas, Northwest Louisiana and Southwest Arkansas, becoming more numerous across the region in the afternoon during peak heating.
The daytime heating will contribute to moderate instability developing during the day, with strong wind shear and large scale forcing and instability aloft enhancing the potential for severe thunderstorm development.
Damaging winds, isolated tornadoes and large hail will be possible with locally heavy rainfall also a concern over extreme Eastern Texas, North
Louisiana and Southwest Arkansas as the front slows its eastward progress Wednesday afternoon.
These showers and thunderstorms should organize into a squall line by late afternoon and early evening over North Central Louisiana and South Central Arkansas, accelerating east out of the region around midnight Wednesday night. Postfrontal showers and thunderstorms should persist behind the front Wednesday night before diminishing from west to east.
magnoliareporter.com will activate its Storm Watch Party at the Magnolia Reporter page on Facebook if severe weather threatens Columbia County. We relay the latest storm-related information from our sources, while counting on readers to supply us with up-to-date information about the impact of the weather on their block.
Two-to-four inches of rain may be expected across South Arkansas as a result of this storm system. This possibility has prompted the National Weather Service in Little Rock to issue a flood advisory for the Ouachita River at Camden, the Thatcher Lock and Dam near Calion, and the Saline River at Benton.
River forecasts are based on current conditions and rainfall likely to occur during the next 48 hours.
The flood advisory for the Ouachita River at Camden is in effect through Wednesday evening.
At 10:07 a.m. Tuesday, the Ouachita River stage at Camden was 14.4 feet. Flood stage is 26.0 feet. The river will rise to near 25.5 feet by Monday evening based on expected rainfall amounts over the next 48 hours. This forecast may change depending on how much precipitation falls.